Wednesday, January 26, 2005

Irrational Exuberance in the housing market

Must read article about the real estate bubble.

12 comments:

Brad Warbiany said...

Couldn't you have waited until after Feb 4th, when I close on my house, to post something like this?

Playerslight said...

I don't know what the situation is in the States, but it's pretty bad up here in Canada. A strong economy coupled with 5 or 6 consecutive years of low interest rates has led to a crazy market for houses. Rental vacancy rates are low, people are stretching their finances to move out of apartments, and it seems to be getting a little ridiculous. If the interest rate spikes up here by 3 or 4 percent over the next couple of years, there is gunna be a lot of crying going on (and foreclosures).

Glen.

David said...

He makes some pretty convincing arguments, but when he says "Technological progress in the construction industry may proceed faster than in other sectors," I think he's on shaky ground. The construction industry is highly fragmented, geographically dispersed, and subject to a byzantine maze of local building codes...not exactly a recipe for productivity. And in many of the "other sectors," production can be moved offshore much more easily than in construction.

photoncourier.blogspot.com

Brad Warbiany said...

Glen,
Does the rush of liberals coming up there to escape Bush put added pressure on the housing market? ;-)

Playerslight said...

Brad: Nah, just the welfare and healthcare systems ;-)

Seriously, that whole 'running away from home' thing that seemed to result after the election appears to have been the same sort of empty tactic employed by angst-filled teenagers. Last I heard there had been no appreciable influx of Americans immigrating to Canada.

Glen.

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Brian Ochsner said...

The real estate market is already tanking here in Denver. Foreclosures are way up, and people are shocked that the party couldn't go on forever.

The low level of financial literacy in America absolutely astounds me. If you look back over history even 25 or 30 years, you realize that real estate, stocks, and commodity markets go in cycles. What goes up will eventually come down.

I'm gonna sit back and laugh my ass off at these cocky, idiot realtors and mortgage brokers when their business tanks even more. I don't usually wish bad fortune on anybody, but I know one jackass in particular who's riding his high horse and is about to get smacked with a low branch.